Laplace’s Delusion

The rise of machine learning and big data has revived the dream of predicting the future deterministically. If humans can't discover the laws of social dynamics, maybe machines can, finding patterns in vast data to explain human actions. However, this idea was debunked in the 20th century by Futures Studies founders, who showed the future is not just epistemologically but ontologically distinct from the past. Yet we still fall into Laplace's fallacy, believing data alone can reveal the future—an illusion rooted in new forms of positivism and in a wide range of unproven assumptions that can turn into a threat to the very freedom of human action.

Partecipanti:
Roberto Paura - Italian Institute for the Future

Bio:

Roberto Paura is president of the Italian Institute for the Future, and editor-in-chief of the journal Futuri. He teaches Technological Anticipation at the Master in Digital Philosophy and Artificial Intelligence at the University of Udine. He is the author of several books, the latest of which is Occupare il futuro (2022).

A cura di:
Gruppo Didattica e Storia della Fisica

In collaborazione con:
Climademy